Iran’s thirteenth presidential election was held on 18 June 2021. IranPoll made its prediction of the presidential results exclusively available to Newsweek. Newsweek covered our predictions in a feature exclusive article published on 2021-06-17 at 5:12 PM EDT. Article covered the survey in detail and was featured as the top story on Newsweek’s first page.
Our predictions were based on the responses given by the ‘likely voters’ to this question: “Who will you be voting for in the upcoming presidential election?” The predictions were from a telephone survey conducted by IranPoll, an independent Toronto-based polling organization, among a nationally representative probability sample of 1000 Iranians over the age of 18 on Wednesday, June 16, 2021. The margin of sampling error was +/- 3.09%. Sampling and methodology details are available here.
As the official results of the election became public, IranPoll’s prediction accuracy could be evaluated. IranPoll predicted the voting results for 3 out of 4 candidates accurately within the margin of sampling error and for one candidate our prediction was 1.56% outside of the margin of sampling error.
