Majority of Iranian public approves pursuing agreement on nuclear program, however, most assume that U.S. would lift all its sanctions on Iran

In a new survey of the Iranian public, a solid majority supports pursuing a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. When presented a summary of key points on which negotiators for the P5+1 have already reached an understanding with Iran, a clear majority (57%) expressed support for a deal under which Iran, for a number of years, would limit its centrifuges and nuclear stockpile to the level needed for nuclear energy and accept more extensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency in return for the P5+1 accepting Iran to enrich uranium, lifting of economic sanctions, and expanding nuclear cooperation with Iran. Only 15 percent were opposed; another 28 percent were equivocal or did not know.

Support for the deal may be complicated since attitudes about making a deal on the nuclear program are related to assumptions about whether all US sanctions would be lifted and how quickly Iranians would experience various benefits from sanctions relief. Currently 63 percent of Iranians assume that according to the understanding, all US sanctions on Iran are to be lifted eventually, not just those related to Iran’s nuclear activities. Only 23 percent believe that some US sanctions would continue.  Asked what Iran’s position should be, 51 percent say that unless the US agrees to remove all of its sanctions, Iran should not agree to a deal, while 45 percent say Iran should be ready to make a deal that removes some US sanctions and all UN and EU sanctions.  In this context, support for making a deal is substantially lower among those who believe that the terms of the understanding do not necessarily call for the US to remove all sanctions compared with those who believe that a final agreement would require complete sanctions removal (51% compared with 64%).

Iranians also express high expectations that a nuclear deal, with the removal of sanctions, would produce significant effects within a year.  Majorities say they would expect to see better access to foreign medicines and medical equipment (61%); significantly more foreign investment (62%); and tangible improvement in living standards (55%), all within a year. 

The telephone poll of 1,009 Iranians was conducted May 12-28, 2015, by IranPoll.com and the University of Tehran’s Center for Public Opinion Research working in conjunction with the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland. The margin of error was +/- 3.2%.

Read the full report of this study here.

Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Negotiations

As negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 draw up a final agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program prior to the June 30 deadline, a number of key questions remain unanswered: Will the Iranian public support a final agreement within the outlines provided by the framework of understandings negotiated earlier this year? What expectations does the Iranian public have about the deal? How might these expectations pose challenges for the Rouhani government in selling a deal and sustaining support going into the next election?  How popular is Rouhani and his supporters in the Parliament?

A new study of Iranian public opinion conducted by IranPoll.com, the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and the University of Tehran’s Center for Public Opinion Research in May 2015 explores Iranian public opinion on the nuclear negotiations.

Please join us for a presentation and discussion about the study’s findings in an event held on Tuesday, June 23, 2015 - 09:30 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Root Room (2nd floor), 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036.

Opportunity and Inequality around the World: Iran in Comparison to 44 Countries

On October 9, 2014, Pew Research Center released a report that examined public opinion about opportunity and inequality around the world. The report, which was based on surveys conducted in 44 countries, did not however include the opinions of the Iranian people. In its CATI omnibus poll fielded in May 2015, IranPoll.com asked Pew’s questions regarding the financial prospects for the next generation and the factors that most affect one’s socioeconomic status in life from the Iranian people.

In general, Iranian people are not very different from people in other emerging economies. While an overwhelming majority (86%) of Iranians think that young people would be better off not emigrating to another country, only half (50%) think that the next generation will be financially better off than their parents. Also, a majority (55%) of Iranians at least “mostly” agree that “success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside of our control.”

Income inequality is a huge concern in Iran as it is in most other emerging economies. Some two out of three (63%) of Iranians think that the gap between the rich and poor is a “very big problem” in Iran. As for the determinants of success, Iranians give working hard, having good education, and, of course, knowing the “right people,” quite high scores.

The following charts compares where Iranian people stand as compared to other countries in the word on opportunities, in equality, and determinants of success: